- Photo
- —
- Name
- —
- Field
- Cognitive psychology / statistics
- Year
- 1971
- Lead author
- Amos Tversky
- Core idea
- People expect small samples to look like perfect miniatures of the population and wildly overinterpret streaks and blips.
- Why it hooked me
- Explains every overreaction to a tiny dataset, from baseball slumps to early sales numbers.
- Best for
- Anyone who has ever panicked over a week of metrics or a five-game losing streak.
- Length feel
- Shortish, sharp, and to the point—like a very stern memo to your inner analyst.
- Vibe
- Gentle at first, then ruthlessly unsympathetic to your intuition about randomness.
- Nerdy flex
- Perfect citation when you tell people to wait for more data before changing everything.
TheLysts