Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, image 1 of 11 / 1
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Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

in Papers I Keep Rereading by Diego Navarro

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk on “Papers I Keep Rereading”, a list by Diego Navarro on TheLysts.

Details

Photo
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Name
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Field
Behavioral economics
Year
1979
Main topic
How people actually make risky choices
Key idea
We hate losses more than we like equivalent gains, and we’re irrationally weird about probabilities.
Why it matters
Frames discounts, fees, and upgrade prompts in terms of perceived loss vs gain — huge for pricing and retention.
Best for
Designing plans, paywalls, and nudges that don’t backfire.
Difficulty
High — dense, with lots of formalism, but the intuition is gold.
My take
If you’ve ever wondered why users rage-quit over a “small” fee, this paper is the scouting report.
Reading tip
Read a summary first, then dive into the value function and loss aversion sections with a notebook.