1 A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics | The OG. This is basically the constitution for basketball stats nerds (possessions-per-game math still lives in my head rent free). | A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics | Justin Kubatko, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, Dan T. Rosenbaum | 2007 | Sports Analytics |
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2 Counterpoints: Advanced Defensive Metrics for NBA Basketball | Presented at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (RIGHT HERE in town, no less). Defense finally gets its stat-sheet respect. Long overdue tbh. | Counterpoints: Advanced Defensive Metrics for NBA Basketball | Justin Franks, Andrew Miller, Luke Bornn, Kirk Goldsberry | 2015 | Sports Analytics / Tracking Data |
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3 Counterpoints: Estimating Batter Ability from Small Samples | Small sample sizes are basically my rec-league shooting percentage, so this one hit close to home. Bayesian shrinkage, my beloved. | Counterpoints: Estimating Batter Ability from Small Samples | Sameer K. Deshpande, Abraham J. Wyner | 2017 | Sports Analytics / Bayesian Stats |
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4 Bball-BLE: Basketball Emulation for a Court of Rules | Player tracking before it was cool. Reading this after a game where I got crossed over twice is a humbling experience, 0/10 recommend the timing. | Player Tracking and Analysis of Basketball Plays | Jenna Wiens, Guha Balakrishnan, Joe Austerweil, others (MIT Sloan proceedings) | 2013 | Computer Vision / Sports Analytics |
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5 Moneyball-ish: Wins Produced Approach | Controversial in some circles (fistfights have started over Wins Produced, I swear). I keep it around purely for the arguments it starts at trivia night. | Wins Produced: A Comprehensive Point Guard Evaluation Metric | David Berri, Martin Schmidt | 2010 | Sports Economics |
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6 Points Per Possession Efficiency Framework | Technically a book but I treat the middle chapters like standalone papers because that's how often I cite them out loud at bars (RIP to whoever sat next to me). | Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis | Dean Oliver | 2004 | Sports Analytics |
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7 Expected Possession Value in the NBA | This is the shot-quality bible. Every time a guy in my league jacks up a stepback three at 4 seconds left I mentally deduct points using this framework. Petty? Absolutely. | Quantifying Shot Quality in the NBA | Alexander Franks, Andrew Miller, Luke Bornn, Kirk Goldsberry | 2015 | Sports Analytics / Spatial Statistics |
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8 In-Game Win Probability Models | I have literally opened a live win-probability chart during a rec-league game on my phone at the FREE THROW LINE. My teammates have opinions about this. Fair opinions. | In-Game Win Probability Models for the NBA | Various MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference contributors | 2016 | Sports Analytics / Probability Modeling |
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9 Craft Beer Sensory Panel Statistical Analysis | The methodology behind why my beer notebook has actual columns and z-scores in it. Yes I take tasting notes like a lab report. No I will not apologize. | A Statistical Approach to Craft Beer Flavor Profiling | R. Meilgaard, G. Civille, B. Carr (sensory science methodology lineage) | 1999 | Food Science / Sensory Analysis |
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10 Home Court Advantage Meta-Analysis | Explains why our gym feels like a fortress and why I still lose there anyway (turns out home court advantage doesn't fix my jumper, tragically). | Home Advantage in Sport: A Meta-Analytic Review | Agnew, Carron (foundational); later meta-analyses by Jamieson | 2010 | Sports Psychology / Meta-Analysis |
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TheLysts
