Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Details

Photo

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Name

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Authors

Joshua B. Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Year

2018

Field

Statistics / Behavioral Economics

Why it matters

Re-examines the original hot-hand work and shows that the classic tests undercount streaks because of subtle sampling bias.

My take

This is the plot twist. After decades of saying the hot hand was a mirage, this paper basically says, “well, actually…” and gives hoop fans some ammo back.